New WTA Tour #1: Sharapova or Azarenka?

There will be a new women’s tennis world #1 when the WTA rankings will be released on Monday, January 30, 2012. Caroline Wozniacki was dislodged from her current #1 spot when she lost to defending champion Kim Clijsters at the quarterfinal stage of this year’s Australian Open. After her loss, there were three possible players who could replace her - #2 Petra Kvitova, #3 Victoria Azarenka, and #4 Maria Sharapova.

With the completion of the semifinal round, only Azarenka and Sharapova has a chance to ascend to the top position. Azarenka will be competing for her first grand slam title in her first trip to a grand slam championship match. Sharapova on the other hand will be competing for her fourth Grand Slam title, and first after she won in Melbourne four years ago.

Ranking Projections:

With only the championship match remaining in the first Grand Slam of the year, Wozniacki is certain to drop to the #4 ranking. The final ranking of Azarenka, Sharapova, and Kvitova will depend on who will win the Australian Open finals. Here are the possible scenarios.

Azarenka Win:
#1. Azarenka – 8585
#2. Kvitova – 7690
#3. Sharapova – 7560
#4. Wozniacki – 7085

Sharapova Win:
#1. Sharapova – 8160
#2. Azarenka – 7985
#3. Kvitova – 7690
#4. Wozniacki – 7085

If Azarenka wins, it will mark the first time that a tennis player from Belarus, male or female, has achieved the top tennis ranking. Sharapova has held the top ranking four times before, the last time being on June 8, 2008 after she surrendered the #1 to Ana Ivanovic. She spent a total of 17 weeks in the top position.

Regardless of the outcome, the new #1 will mark the first time in almost a year that the #1 player will be a defending Grand Slam champion. The last time this happened was when Clijsters ascended to the #1 position on February 14, 2011 and held the position for one week. Wozniacki has been heavily criticized for being #1 without winning a single Grand Slam. She took over from Clijsters as world #1 on February 20, 2011. She has held the #1 ranking for a total of 67 weeks.